美联储三把手力挺年内降息，华尔街押注10月行动！

Core Viewpoint - The recent statement by New York Fed President John Williams indicates support for further interest rate cuts this year due to risks of a cooling labor market [1][3] Group 1: Key Support - Williams expressed his personal view that the policy interest rate will likely be lowered further this year, depending on data [3] - His position is significant as he holds a permanent voting role on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), making his views a critical indicator of Fed policy [3] Group 2: Balancing Act - Williams' stance on rate cuts is conditional, emphasizing the need to balance risks, particularly regarding inflation and employment [5] - He warned that if inflation significantly exceeds the 2% target, it could harm the economy and the Fed's credibility [5] Group 3: Divergence in Views - On the same day, Fed Governor Christopher Waller expressed a more cautious approach, advocating for careful policy adjustments to gather more data [7] - Waller's focus on inflation risks and the impact of tariffs highlights the internal debate within the Fed regarding monetary policy direction [7] Group 4: Economic Reality - Williams does not believe the U.S. economy is on the brink of recession but noted signs of slowing non-farm employment and declining corporate hiring intentions [9] - He is relatively optimistic about inflation, suggesting that tariffs have raised consumer prices but expects the impact to diminish over time [9] Group 5: Data Challenges - The government shutdown poses a challenge for the Fed, delaying the release of key economic data such as the non-farm payroll report [11] - Despite this, Williams stated that the Fed would not delay policy actions due to the lack of official data, relying on private indicators to assess economic conditions [11] Group 6: Market Expectations - Financial markets have reacted to the Fed's internal divisions, with a high probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in October at 94.1% [13] - Market expectations for a cumulative 50 basis point cut by December stand at 82.0%, indicating a belief that a rate-cutting cycle has begun [13] Group 7: Conclusion - Williams' comments provide reassurance to the market, but internal divisions within the Fed remain evident, particularly regarding inflation concerns raised by Waller [15] - The upcoming October policy meeting will be crucial in determining the direction of U.S. interest rates and its impact on global market flows [15]