邓正红能源软实力：重构贸易规则投射 伽马效应放大 多因素共振 国际油价走低

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles revolves around the significant decline in oil prices due to geopolitical tensions, supply increases from OPEC, and market reactions to potential U.S. tariffs on foreign products [1][2][3][4] - Oil prices fell sharply on October 10, with West Texas Intermediate crude settling at $58.90 per barrel, down $2.61 (4.24%), and Brent crude at $62.73 per barrel, down $2.49 (3.82%) [1] - The market sentiment is influenced by President Trump's threats to raise tariffs, which has led to a reduction in risk positions among investors, indicating a potential slowdown in economic growth and demand [1][3] Group 2 - OPEC's continuous increase in supply has contributed to the downward pressure on oil prices, leading to a significant oversupply in the market [2][3] - The ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas has reduced geopolitical risks in the Middle East, which accounts for approximately 31.5% of global oil supply, further impacting market sentiment [2][3] - The "gamma effect" is noted, where a concentration of put options around the $60 per barrel mark could lead to increased volatility and further price declines as traders hedge their positions [2][4] Group 3 - The soft power theory framework suggests that the current oil price decline is a result of multiple soft power factors, including tariff threats, geopolitical stability, and OPEC's production adjustments [3][4] - The transition from "material pricing" to "rule pricing" is highlighted, indicating a shift in how oil prices are determined, influenced by geopolitical and economic factors rather than just supply and demand [4]