破历史记录！新房放烟花，二手房深不见底

Group 1 - The core observation is that the recent National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holiday revealed a shift in consumer behavior, with a notable decline in traditional spending on hotels and movies, reflecting broader economic challenges [2][8] - The total box office for the National Day holiday in 2025 was 18.35 billion yuan, marking a 14% year-on-year decline despite an additional day of holiday [2][7] - Domestic travel during the holiday reached 8.88 billion trips, with total spending of 809 billion yuan, resulting in a daily per capita consumption of 113.9 yuan, down 13% year-on-year [2][5] Group 2 - The underlying logic for the decline in movie box office is attributed to insufficient investment in the film industry and inadequate production capacity [2][5] - The shift in consumer spending habits, such as opting for camping over hotel stays, is linked to reduced income and rising prices in tourist areas, making traditional options less appealing [2][5] - The correlation between the peaks in movie box office and real estate sales over the past decade indicates that the real estate sector has been a significant driver of economic activity [6][8] Group 3 - In the real estate sector, new home sales during the holiday period showed significant activity, with reports of high visitor numbers and substantial sales in cities like Beijing, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen [9][12][14] - Beijing recorded a total of 418 new residential contracts during the holiday, while Guangzhou saw a 394% increase in new home purchases compared to the previous year [10][12] - The disparity between new and second-hand home sales is evident, with new homes performing well while second-hand transactions have significantly decreased [17][18]