一旦房地产不起来，2026年或面临5个大难题？

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the significant decline in housing prices across China, affecting both new and second-hand homes, with all metrics showing a downward trend [1] - The debt crisis among real estate companies is severe, with 70% of the top 50 firms in default, and the total on-balance-sheet debt of the top 10 companies exceeding 10 trillion [1] - The peak of real estate company debt maturities is in 2025, with 230 billion in bonds due in the first quarter alone, leading to potential defaults if companies cannot repay [1] Group 2 - Local government finances are heavily reliant on land sales, which have dropped from 8.7 trillion in 2021 to an estimated 4.87 trillion in 2024, a 44% decrease, impacting public services like infrastructure and education [3] - The revenue from land sales in third and fourth-tier cities is stagnating, with only a 9.9% increase in the first two months of 2025, indicating a lack of demand [3] - The increase in non-performing loans in banks, particularly in real estate, has risen from 1.2% to 2.8%, with some city commercial banks having over 30% of their loans tied to real estate [3][5] Group 3 - The decline in the real estate market is leading to a rise in bad assets for banks, as properties used as collateral become unsellable, and the number of mortgage defaults is increasing by 17% in 2024 [5] - The downturn in the real estate sector is negatively impacting related industries such as construction, steel, and furniture, leading to layoffs and reduced demand [5] - Ordinary families are experiencing asset depreciation, particularly in third and fourth-tier cities, where property values are expected to decline further, complicating the financial situation for homeowners [7]