迷雾中的航标：ATFX 2025 Q4《交易杂志》资产配置策略全解析

Core Insights - The global market is facing unprecedented uncertainty as the fourth quarter of 2025 approaches, influenced by the Federal Reserve's easing monetary policy, slowing global economic growth, and Trump's aggressive tariff policies [1][4]. Global Economic Outlook - The ATFX analysis team predicts a "divergent intensification" in the global economy, with some economies showing recovery momentum while others remain stagnant, driven by significant divergences in central bank monetary policies, new tariff impacts, and escalating cross-border trade and technology frictions [4]. US Market Analysis - The previously strong US labor market is showing signs of weakness, prompting a shift in investor sentiment and increasing expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which is a key theme for the quarter [5]. - The performance of technology giants is raising questions about the sustainability of record-high indices, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics [5]. Gold Market Insights - Spot gold prices reached a historical high of $3,700, driven by the Fed's interest rate cuts, geopolitical tensions, and structural demand increases, enhancing the appeal of non-yielding precious metals [6]. Oil Market Dynamics - Despite heightened geopolitical tensions, the oil market appears well-supplied in the short term, with an average daily increase of 1 million barrels since February, although ongoing geopolitical developments pose risks to global energy security [7]. European Market Outlook - Europe is at a strategic turning point with slowing inflation and a shift towards looser global monetary policies, leading to a generally positive outlook for European stocks, particularly benefiting from fiscal stimulus and stable monetary policies [9]. - The ATFX analysis team emphasizes the potential of undervalued European stocks, which offer attractive long-term growth opportunities despite global risks [9]. Currency Analysis - In addition to core asset classes, the analysis includes in-depth evaluations of major currency pairs, focusing on the impacts of monetary policy divergence, political risk premiums, and key technical levels on exchange rate movements [9].