百利好丨市场避险情绪推升美债，降息预期持续升温

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury bonds have experienced a strong upward trend driven by safe-haven demand, with significant declines in yields across various maturities, indicating market expectations for potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][4]. Group 1: Interest Rate Expectations - As of October 11, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in October has risen to 98.3%, while the likelihood of a cumulative 50 basis point cut by December stands at 91.7% [4]. - Market pricing of OIS contracts suggests an expected rate cut of approximately 23 basis points in October, with a total of 46 basis points expected by year-end, reflecting an increase from the previous trading day [4]. Group 2: Contributing Factors - The recent rally in the bond market is attributed to multiple factors, including a significant drop in WTI crude oil prices by 4.2%, alleviating inflation concerns, and the strengthening of UK bonds providing additional support to U.S. Treasuries [5]. - Ongoing issues related to the U.S. government shutdown have delayed the release of key economic data, further enhancing market demand for safe-haven assets [5]. - The Labor Department has recalled some staff to prepare for the delayed release of September CPI data on October 24, coinciding with the Federal Reserve's policy meeting [5]. Group 3: Federal Reserve Officials' Stance - Federal Reserve Governor Waller has expressed support for continued rate cuts but emphasizes a cautious approach, advocating for a gradual reduction strategy due to conflicting signals from the labor market and persistent inflation above target levels [6]. - Newly appointed Governor Stephen Milan has proposed a more aggressive rate cut path, suggesting a one-time cut of 50 basis points and a total reduction of 125 basis points by year-end, although Waller warns against overly aggressive cuts due to potential risks [6]. - Prior to these statements, Waller was reported to be a candidate for the next Federal Reserve Chair, indicating ongoing discussions focused on policy rather than political matters [6].