Hua Er Jie Jian Wen·2025-10-11 09:12Core Insights - TOP TOY, a潮玩 brand under Miniso, has submitted an IPO application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, aiming to raise approximately $300 million [1] - The brand has emerged as the largest and fastest-growing潮玩 collection brand in China, with a projected GMV exceeding 2.4 billion yuan in 2024 [2] - TOP TOY's growth is closely tied to Miniso's resources and market strategies, particularly as Miniso accelerates its North American expansion [2][3] Company Growth and Market Position - TOP TOY was established during the market boom following the listing of Pop Mart and has since become a significant player in the潮玩 industry [2] - The brand has expanded to 299 stores by September 2025, with operations extending to Thailand and Japan [2] - TOP TOY's revenue for 2024 is projected to reach 1.9 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 16.8% [3] Business Model and Channel Strategy - TOP TOY operates under a "light asset" model, leveraging Miniso's extensive retail network, with 85% of its stores being partner-operated [3][4] - Approximately 50% of TOP TOY's annual sales come from its relationship with Miniso, indicating a heavy reliance on Miniso's distribution channels [4][9] - The partnership with Yonghui Supermarket, where Miniso is the largest shareholder, may provide additional sales channels for TOP TOY [4] Financial Performance and Projections - In the first half of 2025, TOP TOY's revenue from搪胶毛绒 products reached 146 million yuan, a 2.3-fold increase compared to the previous year [4] - Sales expenses doubled to 160 million yuan in the first half of 2025, primarily due to investments in overseas market expansion [6][7] Challenges and Strategic Considerations - TOP TOY faces operational challenges due to rapid expansion, with inventory turnover days increasing from 38.1 to 50.5 days [7] - The average transaction value and product price have decreased by 10%, impacting same-store GMV growth rates [7] - The brand's reliance on external IPs remains a concern, with self-developed IP contributing only 0.36% of total revenue in 2024 [12][20] IP Development and Future Outlook - TOP TOY has made strategic acquisitions to enhance its IP portfolio, increasing its self-developed IPs from 8 to 17 [23] - The company aims to establish a stronger presence in the潮玩 market by developing proprietary IPs, which is crucial for long-term competitiveness [21][22] - Future projections indicate a decline in revenue contribution from Miniso, expected to drop below 40% by 2028 [9][10]