Core Viewpoint - The recent announcement by President Trump to impose an additional 100% tariff on Chinese goods starting in November has reignited a trade war, leading to significant declines in European and American stock markets, while gold prices surged due to its safe-haven appeal [1]. Group 1: Historical Performance of Gold - Historically, gold has performed well as a safe-haven asset during trade tensions, economic uncertainty, or geopolitical turmoil, evidenced by an 18.93% increase in gold prices during the last trade war from February 1 to May 12, 2025 [2]. Group 2: Current Market Dynamics - The core support logic for gold remains unchanged with the renewed tariff threats, and the medium to long-term outlook for gold is still positive [4]. - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts are a key driver of gold price fluctuations, with a 25 basis point cut announced in September and two more cuts expected this year, which could positively impact gold prices [5]. - A survey by the World Gold Council revealed that 95% of central banks plan to increase their gold holdings in the next 12 months, with the People's Bank of China having increased its gold reserves for 11 consecutive months, indicating a rising status of gold as a reserve asset amid de-dollarization [6]. - The weakening of the US dollar enhances the attractiveness of gold for holders of other currencies, while increasing geopolitical uncertainties are driving investors towards traditional safe-haven assets like gold [7]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - For investors looking to participate in the gold market without the risk of "chasing highs," gold ETFs are considered an ideal investment tool, offering low entry barriers, low transaction costs, and good liquidity. The gold ETF (518680) has ranked No. 1 in performance among its peers over the past year as of the end of Q3 [8].
关税阴云再聚，黄金避险价值几何？
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-10-11 10:47