Core Viewpoint - The copper industry is experiencing a dichotomy in production activity during the National Day holiday, with some companies operating at full capacity while others are forced to halt production due to high copper prices and weak downstream demand [1][3][19]. Group 1: Production Activity - Among 61 surveyed copper rod companies, 19 chose to continue operations during the National Day holiday, including 16 recycled copper rod companies and 3 refined copper rod companies, with a combined capacity of 2.795 million tons [1][2]. - A recycled copper rod company reported that their order backlog extends to mid-October, indicating strong demand and sufficient raw material supply [2]. - In contrast, refined copper rod companies averaged 4.05 days off during the holiday, an increase from 3.95 days in 2023, due to inventory accumulation and slow delivery [2][19]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The copper price surge, influenced by the shutdown of Indonesia's Grasberg copper mine, has led to a strong performance in the copper sector, with several companies' stock prices hitting the limit up [3]. - Despite high copper prices, downstream orders have not returned to peak levels, leading to cautious production strategies among companies [3][19]. - The production decisions during the holiday reflect a careful balance between order fulfillment and financial pressures, with companies needing to manage costs effectively [3][7]. Group 3: Inventory and Procurement Strategies - 40% of surveyed recycled copper processing companies proactively stocked raw materials before the holiday to ensure continuous production, driven by concerns over post-holiday supply tightness [5]. - Different procurement strategies were observed, with 30% of companies maintaining current inventory levels and another 30% delaying restarts due to unclear policies and weak demand [7]. - The high copper prices have pressured companies to carefully calculate inventory levels, with some firms experiencing significant financial strain due to increased raw material costs [19][23]. Group 4: Industry Outlook - Following the holiday, copper prices reached new highs, with LME copper prices touching $10,989 per ton, indicating a potential continuation of the upward trend [25]. - The market is expected to face a supply surplus in 2025, transitioning to a shortage in 2026, influenced by supply chain disruptions and ongoing demand growth in sectors like renewable energy [27][30]. - The government's policy support for the copper industry aims to boost recycled metal production, which may encourage companies to invest despite current market uncertainties [29][30].
铜加工企业库存堆积如山，铜价还能疯多久？
3 6 Ke·2025-10-11 12:19