A tax-refund surge is coming, JPMorgan strategist says — and it’ll shift US economy like a new round of stimulus checks

Core Insights - A new wave of tax refunds is expected for Americans in 2026, driven by tax cuts from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) retroactively effective from January 1, 2025 [1] - The average tax refund is projected to increase to approximately $3,743 in 2026, up from $3,186 in the previous tax year, indicating a potential increase of $557 [2] - The distribution of these tax benefits is uneven, with specific groups benefiting more than others, which could lead to unintended economic consequences [2][3] Tax Cuts and Deductions - The OBBBA tax cuts primarily benefit certain demographics, such as those earning overtime and tips, car owners financing U.S.-assembled vehicles, seniors over 65, and families with children due to an enhanced child tax credit [3] - Most tax breaks provided by the OBBBA are deductions rather than credits, meaning higher-income individuals will receive greater benefits due to their higher marginal tax rates [4] Tariffs and Economic Impact - While personal income taxes are being cut, the Trump administration is simultaneously increasing import tariffs, with the effective tariff rate currently at 8% and projected to rise to 14.5% [5]