瑞银战略评级黄金，仍“有吸引力”，看涨4200美元/盎司

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices, which have increased over 50% this year, is supported by multiple macroeconomic factors, and UBS forecasts that gold prices could rise to $4,200 per ounce in the coming months, maintaining an "attractive" strategic rating for gold [1][2]. Group 1: Macroeconomic Factors Supporting Gold Prices - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown and concerns over fiscal stability have heightened demand for gold as a safe haven [2]. - The Federal Reserve's shift towards a rate-cutting cycle and doubts about the long-term value of the U.S. dollar are significant factors supporting gold prices [2]. - The low correlation of gold with major stock and bond indices, especially during market stress, enhances its appeal as a diversification tool [2]. Group 2: Continued Upward Momentum for Gold Prices - The expectation of a declining real interest rate, driven by the Fed's easing and persistent inflation above 2%, is likely to further reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold [3]. - Central bank gold purchases are projected to remain near historical highs, with an estimated 900-950 tons expected by 2025, providing a solid foundation for gold demand [4]. - Strong demand from ETFs and retail investors, with a notable 21% month-on-month increase in gold sales reported by the Perth Mint, indicates robust market interest [4]. Group 3: Gold as a Portfolio Stabilizer - In a context of high stock valuations and ongoing market uncertainty, gold's attributes as a hedge and diversification tool are increasingly important [6]. - Gold's characteristics as a store of value and its high liquidity make it an essential component of a diversified investment portfolio [6]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - UBS advises investors seeking to enhance portfolio resilience to increase their allocation to gold to a "low single-digit percentage" to hedge against inflation and uncertainty [7]. - In addition to gold, diversifying with high-quality bonds and hedge funds is recommended to mitigate the impact of single asset volatility on the portfolio [7]. - The long-term strategic value of gold is emphasized, suggesting it should be included in a long-term asset allocation framework rather than for short-term speculation [7].