Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-10-11 14:38Core Viewpoint - The pork market is experiencing a significant decline in prices, with both live pig and pork prices dropping sharply, leading to challenges for vendors and producers [2][3][4]. Price Trends - The price of white strip pork has fallen to 13.8-15.3 yuan/kg, while the national average price for live pigs is 12.50 yuan/kg, down 0.7% from the end of September and over 20% from the end of 2024 [2][5]. - The average price of live pigs from January to September 2023 was 15.1 yuan/kg, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 10.9% [3]. - Pork wholesale prices have also dropped below 19 yuan/kg, reaching a new low of 18.85 yuan/kg on October 10 [6]. Market Dynamics - The current market is characterized by an oversupply, with live pig prices dropping below 13 yuan/kg and pork prices continuing to decline [5][6]. - The futures market for live pigs has seen a significant drop, with a cumulative decline of about 9% in September and over 8% in the first two trading days of October [6]. Producer Challenges - Producers are facing substantial losses, with self-breeding operations losing over 50 yuan per pig and those purchasing piglets facing losses of around 150 yuan [7]. - The decline in prices has led to a slowdown in the sales of pigs, with some producers delaying their selling plans due to anticipated further price drops [7][8]. Company Performance - Major companies like Muyuan Foods reported a significant drop in sales prices and revenues, with September sales averaging 12.88 yuan/kg, down 30.94% year-on-year [3][8]. - New Hope and Wens Foodstuff Group also reported declines in sales revenue and average prices, indicating a broader trend across the industry [8]. Future Outlook - The industry is expected to maintain a state of oversupply in the fourth quarter, limiting the potential for price recovery [9]. - Government policies aimed at regulating production and stabilizing prices are being implemented, including the storage of frozen pork and adjustments to breeding practices [9].