关键数据全面断供，美联储“盲飞”降息，政策分歧矛盾加剧

Core Insights - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting held on September 16-17 resulted in a 25 basis point cut in the benchmark interest rate to a range of 4% to 4.25% amidst unprecedented circumstances due to a government shutdown affecting key economic data [1][4][6] - The absence of critical economic indicators such as non-farm payrolls and inflation metrics has created a challenging decision-making environment for the Federal Reserve, balancing employment concerns against persistent inflation [5][6][14] Rate Cut Context - The decision to lower interest rates comes in the context of a data blackout caused by the government shutdown, complicating the Fed's ability to assess economic conditions [3][4] - The employment market is showing signs of slowing growth, while inflation remains stubbornly high, creating a difficult balancing act for policymakers [5][6] Internal Divisions - There are significant internal disagreements within the Federal Reserve regarding the approach to interest rate cuts, with some officials advocating for more aggressive measures due to emerging employment concerns [9][12] - Conversely, a faction of officials emphasizes caution, focusing on the risks posed by high inflation and the potential consequences of loosening monetary policy too quickly [10][11][12] Risk Assessment - The Fed is weighing the risks associated with employment and inflation, recognizing that current interest rates may have delayed effects on the labor market [14][15] - Persistent inflation above target levels poses a risk of altering consumer and business expectations, complicating future monetary policy decisions [15] Market Expectations - Market sentiment indicates a high probability (92.5%) of another rate cut in October, reflecting uncertainty surrounding the economic impact of the government shutdown and internal Fed divisions [17][18] - The complexity of the situation is heightened by varying expectations from different market participants regarding future rate cuts, creating a challenging environment for forecasting [18] Conclusion - The Federal Reserve is navigating a complex landscape characterized by data shortages, internal disagreements, and the need to balance employment and inflation risks, making future monetary policy decisions fraught with uncertainty [20]