可可价格跳水近60%

Core Viewpoint - The cocoa market has experienced a dramatic collapse after two years of strong growth, with prices dropping to $5,997.59 per ton, a staggering 58% decline from the historical high in April 2024 [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The decline in cocoa prices is attributed to weakened demand and improved supply conditions [1] - Global cocoa grinding volumes are expected to decrease year-on-year in Q2 2025, with Europe down 7.2%, Asia down 16%, and North America down 2.8%, indicating significant demand loss in major consuming regions [1] - The International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) unexpectedly forecasts a global cocoa surplus of 142,000 tons for the 2024-2025 season, contrasting sharply with three consecutive years of supply shortages [1] Group 2: Supply Factors - Weather conditions in West Africa, which accounts for over 70% of global cocoa supply, have improved, and strategic price adjustments have stabilized production [1] - Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana have raised farm delivery prices for producers, potentially stimulating an increase in cocoa supply in Q4 [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that cocoa prices will fluctuate between $5,500 and $6,500 per ton in the near term [1] - Factors such as weather impacts, political instability in producing regions, pest outbreaks, or the El Niño phenomenon could quickly reverse the current trend [1] - Industry observers are also monitoring Ecuador's rise as a major exporter, which may challenge Ghana's position as the world's second-largest producer [1]