美股暴跌美债狂欢！特朗普、政府停摆下的金融风暴来袭

Core Insights - The U.S. stock market experienced a significant decline, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices recording their largest single-day drop since April, while the U.S. Treasury market saw a sharp drop in yields, indicating a flight to safety amid political turmoil [3][4][8] Market Reactions - Trump's recent statements have triggered heightened market anxiety, leading to a flight from equities to safer assets like U.S. Treasuries and gold. This reaction is attributed to a conditioned response to his rhetoric, compounded by uncertainties surrounding trade policies and the looming government shutdown [4][5] - The ongoing government shutdown has entered its tenth day, resulting in delayed economic data releases, which has left the financial markets directionless. The lack of data is likened to a ship navigating without a compass, increasing market volatility [5][6] Treasury Market Dynamics - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell to approximately 4.034%, reflecting strong demand for safe-haven assets. The decline in yields is also driven by market expectations of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with projections indicating two possible cuts totaling 50 basis points by 2025 [6][7] - Trump's recent comments on oil prices and weak economic data have diminished inflation expectations, further supporting the downward trend in Treasury yields. This suggests that even with potential Fed rate cuts, inflation is unlikely to impede the decline in yields [6][7] Future Outlook - Analysts predict that U.S. Treasury yields may remain in a volatile range without clear economic data guidance, with a focus on when the government shutdown will conclude. The expectation is that the 10-year Treasury yield will fluctuate between 4% and 4.5% in the fourth quarter, with short-term rates having room to decline [7][8] - The intertwining factors of Trump's rhetoric, the government shutdown, and Fed rate cut expectations have created a chaotic financial environment, with the potential for further market instability if the shutdown persists [8]