10月了，看看9月房价，这回真的是下跌了！
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-10-11 18:40

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in China is experiencing a significant downturn, particularly in the second-hand housing sector, with prices continuing to decline for over three years, indicating a shift towards "price for volume" strategies among sellers [2][4][18]. Group 1: Price Trends - In September, the average price of second-hand residential properties in 100 cities was 13,381 yuan per square meter, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 0.74% and a year-on-year decline of 7.38% [2]. - First-tier cities are also witnessing price drops, with an overall month-on-month decrease of 0.6% in September, which is an acceleration compared to August [4]. - Specific declines in first-tier cities include Beijing (0.6%), Shanghai (0.48%), Guangzhou (0.97%), and Shenzhen (0.5%) [4]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The number of properties listed for sale has surged, indicating a sense of urgency among sellers. For instance, in August, Beijing saw nearly 18,000 new listings, a 33% increase year-on-year, while Shanghai had 15,500 new listings, up 51% year-on-year [9][11]. - The high volume of listings is intensifying competition among sellers, leading to further price reductions in the second-hand housing market [11]. Group 3: Regional Analysis - Second-tier cities experienced a month-on-month price decline of 0.87% in September, while third and fourth-tier cities saw a smaller decline of 0.68% [13]. - The larger price drops in first and second-tier cities are attributed to previous price bubbles, while third and fourth-tier cities are facing challenges related to low transaction volumes rather than significant price drops [15][16]. Group 4: Policy Implications - Current policies aimed at stimulating the real estate market are designed to prevent a hard landing rather than to drive prices back up to previous highs [18][19]. - The shift in market dynamics indicates that the long-term drivers of housing prices have changed from policy stimulus to sustainable economic development and income expectations [22].