不是迷信！房产救不起来，2026年楼市，或将面临5个难题

Group 1 - The real estate market is facing significant challenges, with property prices continuously declining, leading to financial strain for homeowners and potential impacts on local economies [1][3]. - Local government finances are under pressure due to a sharp decline in land sales revenue, which dropped from 8.7 trillion yuan in 2021 to 4.87 trillion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 44% [3]. - The disparity between first-tier and lower-tier cities is increasing, as land sales in third and fourth-tier cities are significantly lagging behind those in first-tier cities [5]. Group 2 - The bad loan ratio for banks has risen from 1.2% to 2.8%, with some city commercial banks having over 30% of their loans tied to real estate, indicating a high level of risk [5]. - The real estate sector is interconnected with over 60 industries, and the downturn is leading to job losses and reduced income for workers in related fields such as construction and manufacturing [7]. - The decline in property values is causing ordinary families to experience asset depreciation, with only 23% of their wealth being in financial assets, leading to reduced consumer spending [9][11]. Group 3 - The number of second-hand homes for sale is increasing, with major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Hangzhou seeing listings exceed 140,000 units, which could further pressure property prices [5][15]. - The number of properties reclaimed due to mortgage defaults has surpassed 2 million, a 40% increase year-on-year, driven by falling property values and reduced household incomes [15]. - The current real estate market adjustment may present both challenges and opportunities, suggesting a need for strategic asset management and a focus on core properties in desirable locations [17].