房价还会暴跌吗？别瞎猜了，最新权威报告出炉，答案已经很明确了

Core Insights - The report indicates that the Chinese real estate market is experiencing a structural adjustment rather than a collapse, with a projected average price decline of 5-10% over the next 2-3 years [6][12]. Market Overview - In the first three quarters of 2025, the average price of new residential properties in 300 cities was 15,632 yuan per square meter, down 3.7% year-on-year, while the average price of second-hand homes was 12,853 yuan per square meter, down 5.2% year-on-year [1]. - The total sales area of commercial housing from January to September 2025 was 935 million square meters, a decrease of 6.8% year-on-year, with sales revenue of 9.27 trillion yuan, down 8.3% year-on-year [3]. Factors Influencing Price Adjustments - Population structure changes are a fundamental factor, with the proportion of the population aged 65 and above reaching 14.9% by 2025, coupled with a historic low birth rate, leading to reduced housing demand [3][4]. - The supply-demand relationship has shifted, with urbanization rates stabilizing and a surplus of housing in many cities due to previous overbuilding [4]. - The inventory of commercial housing reached approximately 483 million square meters by September 2025, resulting in a depletion cycle of 16.5 months, the highest in five years [4]. - Buyer expectations have changed, with only 37% of individuals aged 25-35 considering home buying a necessity, down from 78% in 2015 [4][6]. - Financing conditions have tightened for developers, leading to price reductions to recover funds, while buyers face restrictions on mortgages and declining income expectations [6]. Future Market Predictions - The report predicts a transition from a "high growth period" to a "stable development period," with price differentiation expected across different cities and regions [6][7]. - Core cities and strong second-tier cities are likely to maintain stable prices due to ongoing population inflow and strong industrial support, while third and fourth-tier cities may face greater downward pressure [7]. - The average price of residential properties under 90 square meters fell by 2.1%, while properties over 144 square meters saw a decline of 7.3% in the first nine months of 2025 [7]. - The adjustment period for the real estate market is expected to last 2-3 years, with a low likelihood of drastic price drops due to the sector's significant impact on the national economy [7][12]. Recommendations for Stakeholders - For first-time homebuyers, it is advisable to enter the market if they have stable income and the selected area has reasonable prices [9]. - For those looking to upgrade their homes, utilizing the current market adjustments for better living conditions is recommended [9]. - Investors should be cautious and focus on cities with strong population growth and industrial support, avoiding areas with declining populations [9][10]. - Homeowners should not panic over short-term price fluctuations and consider downsizing if financial pressure arises [9][10]. Conclusion - The report concludes that while the golden era of real estate has passed, there remains significant potential for housing that meets the needs of residents, emphasizing the importance of understanding market dynamics and making informed decisions [12].