Ge Long Hui·2025-10-12 03:14Core Viewpoint - Alibaba is expected to report a revenue increase of 4% year-on-year for Q2 FY26, with adjusted EBITA margin at 3.5% [2][3] Group 1: Financial Performance - For Q2 FY26, Alibaba is projected to achieve revenue of 245.6 billion yuan, representing a 4% year-on-year growth, with international digital commerce and cloud intelligence revenues increasing by 17% and 30% respectively [2][4] - The adjusted EBITA for Q2 FY26 is anticipated to be 8.5 billion yuan, down 79% year-on-year, with an adjusted EBITA margin of 3.5%, reflecting a decline of 13.6 percentage points [2][4] Group 2: Business Segments - The cloud segment is expected to continue accelerating, with revenue growth of 30% year-on-year for Q2 FY26, while maintaining stable EBITA margins [2] - The Chinese e-commerce group is forecasted to see a 5% year-on-year increase in GMV for Q2 FY26, with a take rate showing year-on-year improvement, although seasonal factors may impact revenue [2][3] - Instant retail is projected to incur an adjusted EBITA loss of 36.5 billion yuan for Q2 FY26, with expectations of a turnaround starting in Q3 FY26 [2] Group 3: Investment and Future Outlook - The company has slightly adjusted its revenue forecasts for FY2026 to FY2028, with expected revenues of 1,050.3 billion yuan, 1,187.9 billion yuan, and 1,305.0 billion yuan respectively, reflecting minor downward adjustments [3] - The adjusted net profit forecasts for FY2026 to FY2028 have been revised to 108.4 billion yuan, 150.2 billion yuan, and 177.2 billion yuan, primarily due to higher-than-expected investments in flash purchase and AI-related applications [3]