Core Viewpoint - The main factors influencing the A-share market in October are policies and external events, liquidity, and fundamentals, with historical data indicating a tendency for the market to be volatile during this month [1][2]. Group 1: Historical Performance - Since 2010, the Shanghai Composite Index has shown an upward trend in October during years when the "Five-Year Plan" was implemented, such as in 2010, 2015, and 2020 [2][3]. - Out of the last 15 years, the index has risen in 8 instances during October [2]. Group 2: Influencing Factors - Policies and external events are the core influencing factors; positive developments may lead to market gains, while tightening policies or negative external shocks could weaken the market [2][3]. - Liquidity conditions are also crucial; a loose liquidity environment can boost the market, as seen in 2010 with the anticipation of QE2, in 2015 with interest rate cuts, and in 2019 with Fed rate cuts [2][3]. - The performance of the third-quarter reports is expected to significantly impact the market in October, with potential structural recovery in earnings [2][3]. Group 3: October Outlook - The A-share market is likely to continue a slow bullish trend in October, supported by positive policy expectations and a potentially loose liquidity environment [3]. - The upcoming Fourth Plenary Session may enhance positive policy expectations, while geopolitical tensions could remain a concern, particularly regarding U.S.-China trade relations [3]. - Economic conditions are expected to show weak recovery, with third-quarter earnings reports indicating a structural rebound in sectors like technology and cyclical industries [3]. Group 4: Sector Allocation - The technology and growth sectors are expected to outperform in October, particularly those related to the "14th Five-Year Plan," which emphasizes technological innovation and domestic demand [4]. - Historical data suggests that industries with strong earnings reports during the third-quarter disclosure period tend to perform well, with high growth expected in technology and cyclical sectors [4]. - The current Fed rate cut cycle may favor technology and certain cyclical industries, with a higher likelihood of leading performance from sectors like computing, automotive, and electronics [4]. - Recommendations include accumulating positions in sectors benefiting from policy support and improving fundamentals, such as communication, machinery, electronics, and renewable energy [4].
华金证券：十月慢牛趋势不变，风格难改
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-10-12 03:45