Workflow
邓正红能源软实力：石油从商品转变为规则载体 价格形成机制就成大国博弈投影
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-10-12 04:34

Core Insights - The article discusses the transition of the oil market from traditional supply-demand pricing to a "rules-based pricing" model, influenced by geopolitical factors, trade rules, and psychological expectations [1][2][4] Group 1: Market Dynamics - International oil prices have significantly dropped, reflecting the characteristics of the "rules-based pricing" era, where geopolitical dynamics and market psychology play crucial roles [2][3] - The decline in oil prices is attributed to multiple factors, including the easing of tensions in the Middle East, expectations of increased production from OPEC, and the impact of U.S. tariffs on global economic growth [3][4] - The "safety premium," which previously supported oil prices by $5 to $8 per barrel, has diminished due to reduced fears of supply disruptions in the Middle East [3] Group 2: Theoretical Framework - The "soft power model" proposed by Professor Deng Zhenghong emphasizes the need for a new evaluation model that incorporates institutional flexibility, technological differences, and value recognition to navigate the "soft power pricing" era [2][4][5] - The model identifies a shift in pricing mechanisms from "material pricing" based on physical supply and demand to "rules-based pricing" influenced by trade terms, geopolitical agreements, and market sentiment [4][5] - The interplay of various factors, including tariff policies, geopolitical signals, and psychological expectations, creates a synergistic effect on oil prices, highlighting the importance of understanding these dynamics in future market predictions [4][5] Group 3: Future Outlook - Future oil price movements will depend on three key variables: the implementation of policies, geopolitical stability in the Middle East, and market reassessment of OPEC's production expectations [5] - The article warns that as the balance between rules power and material power reaches a stalemate, market volatility may increase exponentially, indicating a significant shift in the global energy landscape [5]