美论坛热议：如果美国与中国完全脱钩，中国还能维持多久？

Group 1 - The ongoing debate on the potential decoupling between China and the U.S. reflects the long-term impacts of the trade war, suggesting that isolationism has no winners and could lead to significant economic downturns for both sides [1][10][12] - China's strategy focuses on boosting domestic demand and technological independence, with exports to the U.S. decreasing from over 20% to an estimated 14.7% by 2024, while exports to ASEAN countries are projected to rise by 25% [2][4] - The resilience of China's manufacturing sector is highlighted, with companies like Huawei and SMIC making significant advancements in technology, indicating a shift towards self-sufficiency in critical industries [4][6] Group 2 - The potential consequences of decoupling for the U.S. economy include increased inflation and higher costs for consumers, as 60% of products in major retailers like Walmart are made in China, leading to an estimated $100 billion loss for the U.S. if a complete decoupling occurs [6][8] - U.S. tech giants such as Intel and Qualcomm could see revenue declines of at least 15% if they lose access to the Chinese market, which is crucial for their earnings [8] - The global supply chain disruption resulting from U.S.-China decoupling could lead to increased prices worldwide, exacerbating inequality and impacting emerging economies, while also providing opportunities for countries in Latin America and Africa to strengthen ties with China [10][12] Group 3 - Reports indicate that China's economic resilience is stronger than expected, while U.S. growth may slow due to tariffs, emphasizing the need for rational cooperation over confrontation [12][13] - The overall conclusion is that decoupling represents a lose-lose scenario, and collaboration is essential for mutual prosperity, as the global economy is interconnected and isolation could lead to poverty [13]