美铝产量不足1%！关税救不了铝业，中国该警惕什么？

Core Viewpoint - The fire at Novelis aluminum plant in Oswego, New York, which supplies about 40% of the aluminum sheets used in the U.S. automotive industry, will halt production until early next year, significantly impacting major automakers like Ford [1] Group 1: Importance of Aluminum - Aluminum is referred to as the "universal metal" in manufacturing due to its lightweight and high-strength properties, essential for various applications from cans to aerospace and electric vehicles [3] - The demand for aluminum in electric vehicles is particularly high, as reducing vehicle weight can enhance battery efficiency and extend driving range [5][6] Group 2: Global Aluminum Production - China is the largest producer of aluminum, accounting for nearly 60% of the global output, with a projected production of 71.81 million tons in 2024, while the U.S. only produces 670,000 tons, less than 1% of the global total [6] - The U.S. aluminum industry has declined from producing 4.65 million tons in 1980 to its current levels due to various challenges [6] Group 3: Challenges Facing U.S. Aluminum Industry - The U.S. faces significant challenges, including limited domestic bauxite reserves and high electricity costs, which account for about 50% of aluminum production costs [8] - The electricity cost for U.S. aluminum production is approximately $550 per ton, nearly double that of Canada and China, making it difficult for U.S. producers to compete [8] - Efforts to protect the U.S. aluminum industry through tariffs have led to increased costs for downstream industries, exacerbating the situation [11] Group 4: Recycling and Supply Chain Issues - The U.S. has increased its recycled aluminum production, surpassing primary aluminum output, but still relies on imports to meet demand [11] - The U.S. aluminum industry is caught in a cycle of raw material shortages, high costs, ineffective tariffs, and electricity supply issues [13] Group 5: China's Aluminum Supply Concerns - Despite being the largest producer, China also faces risks due to its limited bauxite reserves, relying heavily on imports, which can be disrupted by geopolitical events [16][18] - The stability of aluminum supply is critical for key industries like automotive and aerospace, prompting China to invest in domestic mining and recycling initiatives [20]