【环球财经】一周前瞻：美股三季报拉开序幕，美联储或传递后续政策信号

Market Overview - The US stock market experienced a significant decline due to escalating trade tensions, with major indices falling collectively. The S&P 500 dropped by 2.43%, the Dow Jones by 2.73%, and the Nasdaq by 2.53% during the week [1] - The European stock market also faced losses, with the STOXX 600 index down by 1.10%, and the German DAX 30 index decreasing by 0.56% [1] - In contrast, the Asia-Pacific markets showed positive performance, with Japan's Nikkei 225 index rising by 5.07% and India's SENSEX 30 index increasing by 1.59% [1] Currency and Commodity Markets - The US dollar index continued its strong performance, rising by 1.13% and surpassing the 99 mark, reaching a two-month high [2] - Gold prices surged, with spot gold reaching $4017.845 per ounce, marking an increase of approximately 3.4% for the week [2] - Oil prices fluctuated, with WTI crude oil futures falling by 4.34% to $58.24 per barrel, influenced by supply and demand dynamics [2] Economic Data and Federal Reserve Outlook - The US government shutdown has delayed the release of key economic data, including the September non-farm payrolls and CPI, creating uncertainty regarding the economic outlook [4] - The Federal Reserve's recent meeting minutes indicated a potential for two more rate cuts this year, but there remains internal disagreement on the future path of rate cuts [5] - Market expectations suggest a 25 basis point rate cut at the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting, but the probability for a December cut has decreased to 80% [5] Earnings Season Insights - The third-quarter earnings season for major US banks is set to begin, with JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo reporting on October 14 [6] - Current market expectations indicate a slowdown in earnings growth for S&P 500 companies, with anticipated growth dropping from 11% in Q2 to 6% in Q3 [6] - The ongoing AI trend is raising concerns about market valuations, with discussions around potential bubbles becoming more prominent [6]