财通证券： 中美贸易摩擦与债市空间

Group 1 - The core theme of the article revolves around the ongoing competitive and cooperative relationship between China and the US, highlighting that while short-term friction is unavoidable, the bond will not be severed abruptly [1] - The bond market is positioned favorably, with expectations of a potential decline in long-term interest rates by up to 10 basis points, and a challenge to the 1.7% level for 10-year government bonds [1][19] - The marginal impact of changes in US-China relations on the bond market is diminishing, with recent market reactions being significantly less severe compared to previous trade tensions in April [1][14] Group 2 - Post-holiday large redemptions of bond funds by institutions are viewed as normal liquidity management rather than a sign of pessimism towards the bond market [2][17] - The bond market saw a decline in yields, with the 10-year government bond yield decreasing by 3.99 basis points to 1.82% during the week [2][19] - The overall balance of funds in the bond market remained stable, despite some fluctuations due to external factors such as new regulations and geopolitical tensions [20][21] Group 3 - The first week of October saw a slight decrease in the scale of wealth management products, with a total of 30.81 billion yuan, reflecting a weekly change of -567.56 million yuan [3][28] - The duration of public funds increased, indicating a slight rise in market consensus expectations [4][38] - The overall market sentiment towards the bond market remains cautious but stable, with institutions adjusting their strategies based on liquidity needs and market conditions [17][18]