Core Insights - The life expectancy in China is projected to reach 79 years during the 14th Five-Year Plan, an increase of 1.07 years from 2020, surpassing the global average by 5 years [1] - The aging population is rapidly increasing, with projections indicating that by the end of 2024, the population aged 60 and above will reach 310 million, accounting for 22% of the total population [3] - The elderly population is expected to grow significantly, with the proportion of those aged 65 and above reaching 15.6% by 2024 [3] Aging Population Trends - The aging trend in China is characterized by both absolute growth in the elderly population and structural changes, with the population aged 60 and above reaching 264 million in 2020, representing 18.7% of the total population [3] - The period from 2021 to 2040 is predicted to be a "high-speed growth period" for the aging population, leading to increased healthcare burdens due to chronic diseases [3] - The prevalence of chronic diseases among those aged 65 and above has consistently exceeded 50% from 2013 to 2018, with a 15.3% increase over five years [3] Elderly Care Demand - The demand for elderly care is growing, but the current care structure in China, based on the "9073" model, is not fully developed, with home care accounting for 96% of the market, community care at 3%, and institutional care at 1% [4] - The existing elderly care market is unable to meet the increasing needs of the elderly population [4] Growth of the Elderly Care Industry - The Chinese elderly care market reached 13 trillion yuan in 2022 and is expected to exceed 19.5 trillion yuan by 2029, driven by the aging trend and the awakening of middle-class awareness regarding elderly care [8] - There is a shift in elderly care from basic living assistance to personalized health management and integrated services, reflecting the rising expectations for quality elderly care [8] Policy and Technological Integration - The transition from family-based care to socialized elderly care is underway, with calls for policy support, a layered service system, precise service content, and the integration of smart technology [10] - The "Smart Health and Elderly Care Industry Development Action Plan (2021-2025)" has been issued, emphasizing the strategic importance of smart elderly care [10] - Digital technologies are reshaping the elderly care industry, with applications such as health monitoring devices, AI for resource matching, and VR for enhancing cultural experiences for the elderly [10]
民政部副部长刘振国：中国人口预期寿命提高至79岁，比世界平均水平高了5岁【附养老产业市场分析】
Qian Zhan Wang·2025-10-12 07:14