Guosen Securities(SZ:002736) 智通财经网·2025-10-12 07:40Core Viewpoint - The report from Guosen Securities suggests that the opportunity for the third wave of gold may be triggered by a peak in the overseas artificial intelligence technology wave, but currently, there are no signs of this occurring [1][5]. Group 1: Gold as an Asset Class - Gold plays a crucial role in asset allocation for diversification and risk hedging, with optimal allocation ratios being a topic of market interest [1]. - Ray Dalio suggests a reasonable allocation of 15% for gold, while Jeffrey Gundlach believes it could be as high as 25%, especially in the context of high inflation and government debt [1]. - The report emphasizes that holding cash and bonds is not an effective wealth preservation strategy in the current economic environment, making gold a valuable independent asset [1]. Group 2: Historical Performance and Allocation Strategies - A simple rebalancing model indicates that since 2013, a portfolio with a 25% allocation to stocks and bonds has underperformed compared to a portfolio heavily weighted in gold, which has shown a net value of 5.84 [2]. - For household asset allocation, a gold allocation of 2-10% is deemed appropriate, with historical data showing that a 10% allocation resulted in a cumulative return of 138.50% compared to 126.10% for portfolios without gold [3]. Group 3: Institutional Asset Management - For institutional asset management products, gold allocation can be increased to over 10%, with optimal allocation averaging 18% based on mean-variance optimization from 1972 to 2014 [4]. - Gold has demonstrated robust performance in various inflation environments, particularly when annual inflation exceeds 5%, and it shows positive or low negative correlation during downturns in stock, bond, and commodity markets [4]. Group 4: Current Market Outlook - Guosen Securities maintains a positive long-term outlook for gold, citing insufficient global safe-haven assets post the Ukraine crisis and concerns over the credibility of the Federal Reserve [5]. - The report notes that the third wave opportunity for gold may arise from a shift in capital flows due to a peak in the AI technology sector, although no such signals have been observed yet [5].