黄金再度“独美”，短期还能上车么？

Core Viewpoint - After the Golden Week, global stock markets experienced a significant decline, while gold prices surged, indicating a new strong cycle in the gold market driven by various factors including global monetary system restructuring, expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, geopolitical risks, and increased investment demand [1][4]. Group 1: Gold Price Dynamics - On October 8, the London gold spot price first surpassed the $4000 mark, closing at $4040.42 per ounce, a 4.7% increase from the previous closing price on September 30 [1]. - Analysts attribute the recent rise in gold prices to a combination of long-term and short-term factors, with the long-term logic being the restructuring of the global monetary system and the weakening trust in fiat currencies [1][4]. Group 2: Central Bank Actions - The People's Bank of China purchased approximately 1.24 tons of gold in September, marking the 11th consecutive month of gold accumulation, bringing the total gold reserves to 2303.52 tons [3]. - Continuous gold purchases by global central banks are seen as a significant support for gold prices, even in less favorable interest rate environments [1]. Group 3: Geopolitical and Economic Factors - The recent U.S. government shutdown has heightened expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, which is a short-term factor driving gold prices up [4]. - Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Eurasia, along with the U.S. trade policy shifts, have increased uncertainty, prompting investors to seek safe-haven assets like gold [5]. Group 4: Investment Demand - In September, gold ETFs saw a significant inflow of 32.57 million ounces, the second-highest monthly inflow in three years, indicating strong investor interest in gold amid rising risks [5]. - The inflationary environment and declining purchasing power have attracted ordinary investors to gold due to its anti-inflation properties [6]. Group 5: Future Outlook - Most institutions expect short-term strong fluctuations in gold prices, with a long-term bullish outlook due to ongoing monetary easing, geopolitical risks, and sustained investment demand [7]. - UBS emphasizes that gold's role as a hedge and a store of value makes it an essential part of diversified investment portfolios [7]. - Analysts predict that gold prices could reach $6000 by next spring based on historical trends, with the current supportive factors likely to persist for the next 2-3 years [7][8].