桥水创始人达利欧警告美债超37万亿，危机或两三年内爆发

Core Viewpoint - Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, warns that the rapid growth of U.S. government debt, combined with escalating internal and external conflicts, is creating an environment reminiscent of the pre-World War II era, posing a serious challenge to the existing order [1][2]. Debt Situation - As of October 2025, the U.S. national debt exceeds $37.86 trillion, with the Congressional Budget Office estimating that public debt will reach 99% of GDP in 2024 and rise to 116% by 2034, the highest in U.S. history [2]. - Dalio emphasizes that the debt crisis is intertwined with increasing social division and geopolitical risks, creating a "worrisome environment" due to ongoing global conflicts and wealth inequality [2]. Internal Conflicts - Dalio warns of an emerging "form of civil war" in the U.S. due to "irreconcilable differences," suggesting that these conflicts could escalate into confrontations among various factions if left unaddressed [2]. Bridgewater Associates Performance - Bridgewater Associates is expected to achieve its largest gain since 2010 this year, following strategic adjustments led by current CEO Nir Bar Dea, including team restructuring and asset reduction to enhance overall performance [3]. - As of December 31, the assets under management at Bridgewater were $92 billion, down from nearly $140 billion at the beginning of 2023 [3]. Investment Recommendations - Dalio advises investors to allocate up to 15% of their assets to gold, despite gold prices recently surpassing $4,000 per ounce, indicating a belief in gold's continued value amid inflationary pressures and a weakening dollar [3].