TYN(SZ:000591) Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-10-12 09:22Core Insights - Solar energy has transformed from being perceived as expensive and reliant on subsidies to becoming the cheapest source of electricity globally, surpassing coal, natural gas, and even wind energy [1][3][4] Cost Reduction and Production - Over the past decade, the cost of solar power has plummeted by nearly 90%, while wind energy costs have decreased by 70%, primarily driven by Chinese companies through large-scale production and technological advancements [4][6] - Global production of photovoltaic (PV) modules is projected to increase from 50 GW in 2015 to 400 GW by 2024, with China dominating over 80% of the global solar PV panel production [6][4] - The unit costs of supporting components like inverters and brackets have also dropped by over 30% due to scale effects, making solar energy viable even in high-latitude countries like the UK [8] Energy Supply and Demand Challenges - The influx of cheap solar power has led to significant oversupply issues, with California experiencing a 30% surplus during peak sunlight hours in summer 2023, resulting in an 8.2% curtailment rate [10] - Similar issues were observed in Qinghai, China, where a 5.1% curtailment rate equated to 12 billion kWh of clean electricity wasted in Q2 2023 [10] Strategic Responses from Western Countries - In response to China's manufacturing dominance, the U.S. and EU have introduced substantial subsidies through the Inflation Reduction Act and the Net Zero Industry Act, respectively, aiming to rebuild domestic clean energy supply chains [13][15] - However, the cost of domestically produced solar components in the EU is 60% higher than imported ones, yet the EU remains committed to achieving 40% self-sufficiency in clean energy technology by 2030 [15] Grid Modernization and Energy Storage - The existing electrical grid, designed for centralized power generation, faces challenges due to the rise of distributed solar generation, necessitating smart grid solutions [17] - Companies like Grid4C in the U.S. are developing AI systems to predict solar generation and grid load, achieving a 92% accuracy in dispatching [17] - Integrated projects in China and Germany have successfully improved solar energy consumption rates through real-time adjustments and regional power sharing [19] Energy Storage Developments - The significant drop in lithium-ion battery prices since 2010 has made energy storage more feasible, with large-scale projects emerging globally [21] - Notable projects include Australia's Hornsdale and China's Ningxia, which can store substantial amounts of green electricity, addressing solar energy's intermittency and stabilizing the grid [23] Economic Viability of Energy Storage - Despite a 110% increase in new energy storage capacity in China in the first half of the year, the average profitability of the sector remains below 8%, posing challenges for sustainable business models [25] China's Dual Role in Energy Transition - China plays a pivotal role in the global energy revolution, contributing one-third of global clean energy investments while also facing challenges in its energy structure, where coal still accounts for 53.2% of primary energy consumption [29][27] - The country is pursuing a unique transition strategy called "incremental replacement," prioritizing renewable energy for new demand while using coal plants to balance renewable energy fluctuations [31] Future Outlook - According to the International Energy Agency, China's wind and solar capacity is expected to reach 3.6 TW by 2030, requiring an annual addition of 250 million kW, a challenging target [33] - The future energy transition will test global capabilities in grid modernization, energy storage commercialization, and supply chain cooperation and competition [33]