2025智算产业发展研究报告

Core Insights - The report highlights the rapid transformation of the global economy driven by artificial intelligence (AI), predicting a 15% growth in global economic scale over the next decade, with a contribution of 11 trillion yuan to China's GDP by 2035 [1][16] - 2025 is identified as a pivotal year for the large-scale application of AI, with the intelligent computing industry emerging as a core engine for digital economic growth [1][17] Global Policy Landscape - A global competition in intelligent computing policies has commenced, with the US planning to invest $500 billion over four years to enhance AI infrastructure through the "Stargate Project" [1][19] - The European Union has launched the "InvestAI" initiative, aiming to raise €200 billion for AI investments and establish a €20 billion fund for building AI super factories [1][20] - Japan and South Korea are also accelerating their investments in AI and semiconductor industries, with Japan planning to invest over $65 billion by 2030 and South Korea establishing a national AI computing center [1][21][22] China's Development Path - China's intelligent computing industry is characterized by an "application-driven + inclusive service" approach, with multi-level policy support promoting AI applications across various sectors [2][24] - As of June 2025, China has 10.85 million standard racks in use, with an intelligent computing scale of 788 EFLOPS and a total storage capacity exceeding 1,680 EB, maintaining a leading position globally [2][16] Demand and Supply Dynamics - The demand side is shifting from "training" to "inference," with inference models evolving from pure text to multi-modal capabilities, expected to account for over 70% of global computing demand by 2026 [3][4] - On the supply side, major tech companies are significantly increasing their capital expenditures, with a projected $246 billion in 2024, and China's intelligent computing market growing by 43% [4][5] Future Trends - Five key trends are anticipated in the intelligent computing industry: accelerated domestic chip replacement, expansion of computing clusters, green transformation of AI infrastructure, evolution of integrated intelligent computing platforms, and increased penetration of AI applications in vertical industries [5][6] - The market for vertical AI applications is expected to grow from $5.1 billion to $47.1 billion by 2030, indicating substantial potential in various sectors [5] Regional Development - China's intelligent computing industry exhibits significant regional disparities, with Guangdong, Beijing, Jiangsu, and Shanghai leading in innovation, while other provinces are catching up through local economic vitality and policy support [6][24] - Technological innovations such as PD separation, heterogeneous mixed training, and silicon photonics are driving industry breakthroughs [6][6]