Netflix Stock Still Looks 15% Too Cheap, Especially If It Keeps Producing 20% FCF Margins

Core Insights - Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) is expected to report strong Q3 results on October 21, with a projected free cash flow (FCF) margin of at least 20%, indicating that the stock could be undervalued by nearly 15% [1] - The stock closed at $1,220.08 on October 10, showing a slight decline of less than 1% in a down market, but it remains above its recent low of $1,143.22 [2] - Analysts have raised revenue forecasts for Netflix, with the average projected revenue for 2025 at $45.05 billion and for 2026 at $50.87 billion, reflecting an increase of 11.8% for 2026 [6] Financial Performance - In the last quarter, Netflix's revenue increased by 15.9% year-over-year to $11.079 billion, with management forecasting a further 17.3% increase for Q3 to $11.526 billion [5] - The FCF margin for the last quarter was reported at 20.5%, with a first quarter margin of 25.2%, leading to a half-year average of 22.85% [7] - The trailing twelve months (TTM) FCF was $8.5 billion as of Q2, and the projected FCF for the next twelve months (NTM) is estimated to be $10.08 billion, which is 17.6% higher than the TTM figure [7] Price Target - Following the analysis of Q2 results, the new price target for NFLX stock is set at $1,400, representing a potential increase of 14.7% from the closing price on October 10 [4]