吴说本周宏观指标与分析：美联储经济状况褐皮书、美国 9 月 PPI

Core Insights - Trump's threat to impose an additional 100% tariff on China has caused significant market turbulence [2] - The Federal Reserve's meeting minutes indicate a consensus among officials for moderate easing in the current context, with potential further rate cuts expected within the year [2] - The U.S. economy shows signs of slowing growth, with actual GDP growth decelerating and a softening labor market [2] Economic Indicators - The Federal Reserve anticipates a reduction in bank reserves to approximately $2.8 trillion by Q1 2026 as part of its balance sheet normalization process [2] - The initial October inflation rate expectation in the U.S. is 4.6%, slightly lower than the previous value of 4.7% [2] - The University of Michigan's consumer confidence index for October is at 55, marking the lowest level since May, compared to an estimate of 54.2 and a previous value of 55.1 [2] Upcoming Events - Key economic indicators to be released include China's September CPI on October 15 and the U.S. September PPI on October 16 [3] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak at an event on October 17 [3] - A G20 finance ministers and central bank governors press conference is set for October 17 [3]