从威胁到认怂！除非形势需要，美国没打算跟中国打贸易战。

Group 1 - The U.S. has no intention of engaging in a trade war with China unless necessary, as stated by U.S. Trade Representative Tai [1] - Trump's tariff policy has followed a pattern of extreme pressure followed by flexible adjustments, which has led to increased uncertainty in global trade policies [3] - The uncertainty index reached its highest level since 2009 following Trump's "reciprocal tariff" executive order [3] Group 2 - China's recent announcement to expand controls on rare earth products directly targets U.S. strategic interests, as the country controls 70% of global rare earth production and 90% of refining capacity [5][6] - The U.S. has a limited stockpile of rare earths that can only last 4 to 6 months, highlighting its dependency on China for these critical materials [5][8] Group 3 - The tariff threats from Trump have faced increasing domestic opposition, with research indicating a rising risk of economic recession in the U.S. [8] - The tariffs have led to significant price increases in consumer goods, with some items rising over 15%, impacting small businesses due to soaring supply chain costs [8] Group 4 - The rapid change in U.S. stance reveals its passive position in the strategic game, as China has implemented a series of announcements targeting key sectors [10] - China's classification of rare earths as dual-use materials complicates U.S. efforts to circumvent controls through third parties [10] Group 5 - The interdependence between the U.S. and China has become a double-edged sword, with significant portions of U.S. military and technology sectors relying on Chinese rare earths [12] - The recent developments indicate a shift in negotiation dynamics, with the U.S. attempting to retain leverage while acknowledging the reality of mutual dependencies [12]