黄金价格创历史新高 能化及部分农产品承压

Group 1: Commodity Market Overview - In the first week after the National Day holiday, domestic commodity futures showed mixed performance, with precious metals, black metals, and base metals leading gains, while energy chemicals and some agricultural products saw significant declines [1] - From October 9 to 12, the energy chemical sector experienced declines, with fuel oil down 3.00% and crude oil down 3.71%. In contrast, the black metal sector saw iron ore up 1.86%, coking coal up 3.11%, and coke up 2.68% [1] Group 2: Gold Market Dynamics - International gold prices surged during the holiday, with COMEX gold futures breaking the $4000 per ounce mark, reaching a historical high of $4067.8 per ounce due to factors such as the U.S. government shutdown and expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts [2] - Global gold supply remains tight, with a projected 1.5% year-on-year decline in gold mine production by Q3 2025, primarily due to decreasing ore grades in major producing countries like South Africa and Australia [2] - Investment demand for gold increased, with the largest gold ETF seeing a weekly inflow of 12.3 tons, the largest single-week inflow of 2024 [2] Group 3: Palm Oil Market Developments - The palm oil market experienced explosive growth post-holiday, with BMD palm oil futures rising 2.87% during the holiday and continuing to rise on October 8 [4] - Indonesia's plan to implement a B50 biodiesel program in the second half of 2026 is expected to significantly increase domestic palm oil demand, reducing exportable supply and tightening global palm oil availability [4] Group 4: U.S. Government Shutdown Impact - The U.S. government shutdown has led to the suspension of some public services and delayed economic data releases, increasing uncertainty in the market and affecting investment decisions [6] - The shutdown has compounded concerns regarding the U.S. dollar's credibility and sovereign debt, contributing to rising prices for precious metals and other commodities [6] Group 5: Chemical Industry Policy Developments - A new growth stabilization plan for the petrochemical industry has been issued by seven departments, focusing on addressing structural contradictions such as excess low-end capacity and insufficient high-end supply [7] - The plan emphasizes controlling new capacity, encouraging existing producers to undertake energy-saving and carbon-reduction modifications, and supporting the development of high-end chemical products [7]