东方财富：关税风波再起 风险偏好短期下移

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Trump's threat to impose 100% tariffs on all Chinese products has exceeded market expectations, impacting short-term market preferences, while ongoing US-China negotiations may evolve further [2] - The market is likely to stabilize after quickly pricing in the tariff impact, entering a phase of consolidation, with short-term stability and policy-benefiting sectors expected to outperform, while technology growth remains the main focus in the medium term [1][2] - Key sectors to watch include banking, utilities, military industry, semiconductors, new consumption, non-ferrous metals, and agriculture [1] Group 2 - The fourth quarter typically sees a shift in dominant sectors and styles, with sectors that performed well in the first three quarters often struggling to maintain their performance due to year-end profit-taking preferences [3] - Two typical allocation rules for Q4 are to focus on stability and to position for next year's main trends, with potential themes including controllable nuclear fusion, low-altitude economy, commercial aerospace, and quantum communication [3] - In the absence of clear signals for further growth-stabilizing policies, short-term stability and policy-benefiting sectors are expected to outperform, while growth sectors will undergo rebalancing [3]