恒逸石化(000703)：聚酯行业景气修复 公司钦州项目即将投产

Group 1 - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and six other departments released a work plan for the petrochemical industry aimed at stabilizing growth from 2025 to 2026, targeting an average annual increase of over 5% in the industry's added value [1] - The plan emphasizes enhancing high-end supply by focusing on key industrial chains such as integrated circuits, new energy, and medical equipment, supporting critical product breakthroughs in electronic chemicals, high-end polyolefins, high-performance fibers, special rubber, and high-performance membrane materials [1] - The plan promotes quality improvement in supply and demand by organizing product matching activities and establishing long-term stable cooperation between production enterprises and downstream users in traditional sectors like construction, automotive, and shipping [1] Group 2 - The polyester industry is experiencing an improvement in supply-demand dynamics, with a significant slowdown in new capacity additions, as 650,000 tons of new polyester filament capacity was added in the first half of 2025 [2] - Domestic demand is steadily growing, with China's total retail sales of consumer goods increasing by 5% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, and the textile and apparel sector growing by 3.1% [2] - The company is set to launch its integrated caprolactam-nylon project in Qinzhou, which is expected to enhance its performance and strengthen its upstream and downstream supply chain [2] Group 3 - The company's profitability is expected to recover with the advancement of stabilization policies in the petrochemical industry, with projected net profits of 430 million, 650 million, and 820 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [3] - The company's price-to-earnings ratios are projected to be 56, 37, and 29 times for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 based on the closing price on October 9, 2025 [3] - The company is viewed positively for its future growth potential, receiving an initial "buy" rating [3]