国际金融市场早知道：10月13日

Group 1 - Global central bank leaders will discuss stock market bubbles and potential crash risks at the IMF and World Bank's autumn meeting, with IMF President Georgieva warning that current asset valuations are nearing levels seen during the internet bubble 25 years ago, indicating that a significant market correction could impact the global economy [1][2] - The U.S. federal government shutdown has entered its 11th day, with President Trump instructing Defense Secretary Esper to use all available funds to ensure military personnel are paid during the shutdown, although he did not disclose the source of these funds [1][2] - U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin has narrowed the list of candidates for the Federal Reserve Chair from 11 to 5, including current Fed governors and other prominent economic figures, with plans to further reduce the list before submitting it to President Trump [2] Group 2 - Federal Reserve Governor Waller has warned that U.S. job growth may have turned negative in recent months, with labor market weakness becoming a major concern for policy-making, and he is open to a 25 basis point rate cut in upcoming meetings [2] - The Michigan University survey indicates a slight decline in the U.S. consumer confidence index for October, dropping 0.1 to 55, which is a five-month low but still above market expectations, with consumers expecting a 4.6% inflation rate over the next year [2] - The UK Chamber of Commerce reports that business confidence remains low, with only 48% of entrepreneurs expecting revenue growth, and 25% have cut investments due to rising costs and economic uncertainty, urging against tax increases to stabilize the economy [2] Group 3 - Canada added 60,400 jobs in September, significantly exceeding the expected 5,000, while the unemployment rate remained stable at 7.1%, indicating a notable recovery in the labor market [3] - Japan's Finance Minister has expressed concerns over the recent sharp decline of the yen against the dollar, labeling it as "one-sided and extreme volatility," and stated that the government will closely monitor excessive fluctuations in the foreign exchange market [3] - Moody's has warned that approximately 22 U.S. states are either in recession or on the brink of one, suggesting that if economic weakness spreads from smaller manufacturing states to larger states like California or New York, the U.S. economy could face an overall recession [3] Group 4 - International precious metal futures saw a general increase, with COMEX gold futures rising 1.58% to $4,035.50 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures increasing 0.76% to $47.52 per ounce [4] - International oil prices fell across the board, with U.S. crude oil main contract dropping 5.32% to $58.24 per barrel, and Brent crude oil main contract decreasing 4.8% to $62.09 per barrel [4] - U.S. Treasury yields collectively declined, with the 2-year yield down 1.63 basis points to 3.572%, and the 10-year yield down 1.95 basis points to 4.117% [4]