黄金今日行情走势要点分析（2025.10.13）

Group 1: Fundamental Analysis - The escalation of international trade tensions has directly catalyzed a surge in safe-haven demand for gold, particularly following President Trump's threats regarding tariffs and export controls on critical items from China [2] - The U.S. dollar index fell by 0.5% to 98.82, making gold cheaper for overseas buyers, which further stimulated demand; since April, gold prices have risen by 52% due to the trade disputes [3] - Geopolitical risks, including the intensification of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and instability in the Middle East, have increased global uncertainty, further supporting gold as a safe-haven asset [3][4] - Market expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut have weakened the dollar, making gold more attractive; the probability of a 25 basis point cut in October is at 97% [5] Group 2: Technical Analysis - The recent strong performance of gold is evident, with a brief adjustment followed by a rebound, indicating a "stabilization after adjustment" technical pattern; key support levels are identified around 4007 and 3947/3944 [7] - The short-term resistance level is focused around 4060, where gold has faced multiple rejections; a breakthrough here could confirm an upward trend [7] - In the four-hour timeframe, gold is currently in a potential extended wave structure, with critical support at 3944; a failure to hold this level may indicate the end of the upward trend [10]