张尧浠：未来一年宽松交易为主流、金价4000关或又只是开始

Core Viewpoint - The international gold market has shown a strong rebound, reaching historical highs, driven by geopolitical tensions, expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, and ongoing concerns about a potential U.S. government shutdown [1][3][7]. Price Movements - Gold prices opened the week at $3887.48 per ounce, hitting a low of $3884.01 before rebounding to a high of $4058.85, ultimately closing at $4012.63, marking a weekly increase of $128.31 or 3.3% from the previous week's close of $3884.53 [3][4]. - The price volatility for the week was $174.84, indicating significant market movements influenced by various factors [3]. Influencing Factors - Geopolitical risks, including the ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions and the Israel-Hamas conflict, have contributed to increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [3][4][6]. - The Federal Reserve's anticipated interest rate cuts and the potential economic impact of a government shutdown have further supported gold prices [1][6][7]. - The World Trade Organization's downgrade of global trade growth forecasts for 2026 has also played a role in driving gold prices higher [3]. Market Sentiment - Despite a temporary dip in gold prices following a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas, the overall market sentiment remains bullish due to ongoing geopolitical uncertainties and expectations of further monetary easing by the Federal Reserve [6][7]. - The market is characterized by a strong demand for gold, with central banks, particularly in emerging markets, increasing their gold reserves as part of a "de-dollarization" strategy [7][8]. Long-term Outlook - Analysts predict that the Federal Reserve may adopt a more dovish stance in the coming year, potentially accelerating the pace of interest rate cuts, which would be favorable for gold prices [7][8]. - Goldman Sachs has raised its gold price target for December 2026 to $4900 per ounce, reflecting a bullish long-term outlook for gold [7].