Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-10-13 01:26Core Viewpoint - CICC maintains a "outperform" rating and profit forecast for Hang Lung Properties (00101), with a target price of HKD 9.46 per share, corresponding to a 15x core P/E for 2025, a 5.5% dividend yield, and a 5% upside potential [1] Group 1: Retail Performance - The retail performance of mainland shopping malls is expected to improve, with a projected year-on-year increase of 10% in retail sales for Q3 2025, following a trend of quarterly improvement throughout the year [2] - Contributing factors include a low base from the previous year (Q3 2024 retail sales down 18%), effective marketing strategies, and an expected 9% year-on-year increase in foot traffic during July and August [2] - During the National Day holiday, retail sales increased by 15% year-on-year, with notable growth in Wuhan and Shanghai [2] Group 2: Strategic Initiatives - The company has launched the "Hang Lung V.3" strategy, focusing on reinvesting in existing projects and exploring potential opportunities in surrounding areas [3] - Specific initiatives include the expansion of Shanghai Hang Lung Plaza, which is expected to increase rentable area by 30%, and the transformation of Shanghai Port Exchange into a five-star hotel [3] Group 3: Performance of Key Malls - Shanghai Hang Lung Plaza is expected to maintain its leading position in the luxury market through targeted services for high-end clientele, with new openings anticipated to further boost retail sales [4] - Shanghai Port Exchange is focusing on luxury brand expansion and optimizing its mix of sports, outdoor, and dining brands, with a projected year-on-year retail sales increase of 31% for Q3 2025 [4] - Wuxi Hang Lung Plaza has seen continuous growth since introducing luxury brands, with over 180 new brands expected to be signed in 2024-2025, including more than 70 first stores in Jiangsu or Wuxi [4]