2025年下半年投资展望——越过彼岸：在不断变化的世界中寻求发展可能性

Economic Outlook - The global economy is expected to continue expanding in the second half of 2025, but at a slower pace, influenced by uncertainties in U.S. policies and ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [1][25] - U.S. economic growth is projected to slow to 1.0% year-on-year due to trade policy uncertainties and a cooling labor market, although tax cuts may provide some relief [1][43] - The Eurozone is recovering from a mild recession, with a GDP growth forecast of 0.5%, but risks remain if trade agreements with the U.S. are not reached [1][45] - China's economy is stabilizing with a projected growth rate of 4.6%, driven by exports and government stimulus, despite weak domestic demand [1][48] - Japan's economy faces downward risks with a growth forecast of 1.0%, impacted by tariffs and a strong yen [1][52] Inflation and Monetary Policy - Inflation rates are generally declining across most economies, approaching central bank targets of around 2%, although some sectors, particularly services, may experience sticky inflation [1][31] - The Federal Reserve is expected to implement three rate cuts in the second half of 2025, while the European Central Bank is also likely to continue its easing cycle [1][36][44] - In Asia, central banks are adopting more accommodative monetary policies, with China expected to maintain a "moderately loose" stance [1][37] Asset Class Views - The stock market is experiencing significant volatility, with recommendations for diversified investments in quality dividend stocks, technology stocks, and the Chinese market [2][67] - The bond market shows stable short-term yields, while long-term yields are elevated due to fiscal concerns, with a favorable outlook for investment-grade bonds in developed and emerging markets [2][75] - The outlook for commodities includes strong support for gold due to safe-haven demand, while oil prices are expected to rise due to geopolitical tensions [2][67] Key Themes - The impact of Trump's "2.0" policies introduces trade and fiscal uncertainties, with tariffs raising costs and tax cuts providing short-term economic stimulation [2][12] - The global economy is in a temporary slowdown phase, which is not a recession, presenting opportunities for investors to capitalize on market volatility in the third quarter [2][12] - The transition of artificial intelligence from concept to application is creating investment opportunities, particularly in downstream sectors, with the U.S. and China as primary competitors [2][12]