机构称四季度债市行情即将启动，国债ETF5至10年(511020)长久期备受关注

Group 1 - The risk appetite is expected to decline significantly, leading to a shift towards the bond market as a defensive strategy [1] - The recent easing of US-China trade tensions is overshadowed by Trump's insistence on maintaining the tariff increase plan set for November 1 [1] - Institutional funds may shift from stock investments to more conservative positions as the stock market valuation is significantly higher than in early April [1] Group 2 - In Q3, the bond market saw a significant adjustment due to increased risk aversion, with an estimated 2 trillion yuan flowing from the bond market to the stock market [1] - The bond market is expected to improve in Q4, following a pattern of adjustments and recoveries observed in previous quarters [1] - The 10-year government bond yield is projected to reach 1.65% by year-end, with a potential breakthrough of 1.6% if trade tensions do not ease by the end of October [1] Group 3 - As of October 10, 2025, the 5-10 year government bond ETF has seen a slight increase of 0.02%, marking three consecutive days of gains [3] - The ETF has a total scale of 1.507 billion yuan, with a year-to-date net value increase of 21.52% [3] - The ETF's management fee is 0.15%, and the tracking error over the past month is 0.032%, indicating strong tracking precision [4]