中美贸易扰动再度来袭，贵金属历次表现如何？

Core Viewpoint - The performance of precious metals, particularly gold, is significantly influenced by the interplay of monetary policy, risk aversion, and geopolitical tensions, especially during escalations in the US-China trade conflict [2][4]. Group 1: Historical Context of Precious Metals Performance - Since 2018, several escalations in the US-China trade conflict have led to increased demand for safe-haven assets, with gold prices rising in response to heightened market volatility and geopolitical risks [3]. - Historical data indicates that when global monetary policy becomes more accommodative, particularly with expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, it tends to depress the dollar and real interest rates, providing a foundation for rising gold prices [2][4]. - The combination of trade tensions and existing geopolitical risks can significantly enhance the attractiveness of gold, leading to increased capital inflows into the precious metals market [2][4]. Group 2: Current Market Analysis - Current market conditions show a notable increase in risk and uncertainty, with threats of significant tariffs on Chinese goods and ongoing government shutdowns in the US exacerbating trade tensions and economic concerns [5]. - Expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in October and December, along with a trend towards more accommodative monetary policy, are likely to enhance gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset in the short term [6]. - Silver may face weaker performance compared to gold due to potential suppression of industrial demand amid market uncertainties, despite previous significant price increases and existing tightness in the physical silver market [6].