美元跌落神坛？29年来首次，全球银行做出了共同选择

Core Insights - Gold prices have surpassed $4,000 per ounce, and for the first time in 29 years, global central bank gold reserves have exceeded U.S. Treasury holdings, indicating a significant shift towards de-dollarization [1][9] - The dominance of the U.S. dollar, once seen as a geopolitical advantage, is now facing serious challenges as countries actively seek alternatives [3][12] Group 1: Dollar Hegemony and Its Challenges - The establishment of dollar hegemony was a strategic design post-World War II, with the Bretton Woods system linking the dollar to gold, which was later decoupled in 1971 [3] - The dollar's status as the primary reserve currency has provided the U.S. with substantial benefits, including easy management of trade deficits and significant revenue from seigniorage [3][12] - Recent trends show a decline in the dollar's share of global foreign exchange reserves, dropping from 71% in 2000 to approximately 58% by 2024 [7] Group 2: De-dollarization Trends - Since Q3 2020, de-dollarization has shifted from academic discussion to actionable strategies by nations, with central banks purchasing an average of 1,000 tons of gold annually, primarily from emerging markets [9][10] - Countries are increasingly adopting local currency settlements or alternative non-dollar currencies to mitigate risks associated with the dollar [10][18] - The global financial infrastructure is becoming more diversified, with China's CIPS system facilitating cross-border payments in yuan, covering 185 countries by the end of 2024 [7][10] Group 3: Future of the International Monetary System - The restructuring of the international monetary system is no longer a question of "if" but "how," with potential alternatives like the euro, yuan, and SDR gaining traction [14][16] - The rise of gold as a reserve asset reflects a response to declining confidence in the dollar, with gold now surpassing the euro as the second-largest reserve asset globally [16][18] - A multi-polar currency system may emerge, featuring coexistence among the dollar, euro, yuan, and gold, which could help mitigate risks and reduce the impact of single currency fluctuations on the global economy [16][18]