Core Viewpoint - The recent rebound in international oil prices is seen as a correction of overly pessimistic sentiment rather than a trend reversal, with ongoing trade tensions and geopolitical risks continuing to impact market stability [1][6]. Group 1: Oil Price Movements - Brent crude oil has risen above $63 per barrel, while WTI crude is stabilizing around $60, following significant declines due to renewed trade tensions [1]. - Last Friday, both Brent and WTI recorded their largest single-day drops since August, with Brent falling by 3.8% and WTI dropping below the $60 mark [1]. Group 2: Trade Tensions and Market Reactions - The U.S. has indicated a willingness to negotiate with Asian countries after announcing 100% tariffs and export restrictions, which has provided temporary relief to oil prices [1][3]. - Asian countries have responded positively to dialogue but remain firm against threats, which may help alleviate short-term trade concerns and support risk assets [3]. Group 3: Market Uncertainties - Despite the positive signals, investor confidence remains low due to the lack of concrete actions and negotiation arrangements [3]. - The introduction of port surcharges on U.S. vessels by Asian countries has led to the cancellation of some crude oil transport plans, increasing uncertainty in the energy market [3]. Group 4: Technical Analysis - WTI crude has found temporary support around $59.00 after a rapid decline, but it has not yet broken through the critical resistance level of $60.00 [3]. - If prices do not stabilize above $60, the rebound may not be sustainable, with support levels identified between $59.30 and $58.50 [4]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The overall technical outlook remains weak, and short-term operations should be approached with caution, especially if there are no substantial developments in U.S.-Asia trade negotiations [6].
原油交易提醒:全球贸易情绪反复,WTI重返60美元附近
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-10-13 02:14