Ge Long Hui·2025-10-13 02:21Retail Performance - In September, the national retail sales of passenger cars reached 2.241 million units, a year-on-year increase of 6.3% and a month-on-month increase of 11.0%, with cumulative retail sales for the year at 17.005 million units, up 9.2% year-on-year [1][3] - The retail sales in September set a new record, surpassing the previous high of 2.19 million units in September 2017 by 50,000 units, indicating strong growth before the end of year policy adjustments [1][3] - The market is shifting towards stability with fewer price cuts and promotions, as evidenced by 23 models reducing prices in September compared to 36 last year and 11 in 2023 [1][3] Market Characteristics - In September, the retail, export, wholesale, and production of passenger cars all reached historical highs for the month, with new energy vehicle exports also hitting a record [3] - The cumulative domestic retail growth rate for passenger cars from January to September fell to 9.2%, showing a "front low, middle high, back flat" trend [3] - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles in domestic retail reached 57.8% in September, supported by policies such as tax exemptions for new energy vehicles [3][11] Brand Performance - In September, retail sales of domestic brands reached 1.5 million units, a year-on-year increase of 13%, capturing 66.9% of the domestic market share [4] - The top five state-owned groups saw a combined year-on-year growth of 25% in September, with brands like SAIC, Dongfeng, and Changan performing strongly [3][4] - The retail share of luxury brands decreased slightly to 10.8% in September, indicating increased pressure in the traditional luxury car market [4] Export and Production - In September, passenger car exports reached 528,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 20.7%, with new energy vehicles accounting for 40.1% of total exports [5] - Production of passenger cars in September was 2.838 million units, up 17.2% year-on-year, with cumulative production from January to September at 20.78 million units, a 13.9% increase [5][6] - The wholesale of passenger cars in September reached 2.803 million units, marking a historical high for the month, with a year-on-year increase of 12.4% [6] Inventory and Market Dynamics - The overall industry inventory increased by 70,000 units in September, contrasting with a decrease of 120,000 units in the same month last year, indicating a proactive inventory strategy by manufacturers [7] - The market is experiencing a gradual shift towards stability, with manufacturers maintaining a balance between production and sales [7][18] New Energy Vehicles - In September, production of new energy passenger cars reached 1.501 million units, a year-on-year increase of 22.9%, with cumulative production for the year at 10.376 million units, up 32.2% [8] - The wholesale volume of new energy vehicles in September was 1.5 million units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 22.4% [8] - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles among domestic brands reached 68.3%, while mainstream joint venture brands lagged significantly at 6.6% [8][11] Future Outlook - The outlook for October suggests a slight decrease in market activity due to fewer working days compared to the previous year, with expectations of a more moderate growth rate [17] - The ongoing push for new energy vehicles and consumer incentives is expected to sustain market momentum, despite potential challenges from policy changes [17][20]