机构称债市有望迎来阶段性回暖，30年国债ETF(511090)盘中涨近1%，成交额超29亿

Core Viewpoint - The 30-year Treasury ETF has shown a positive performance with a 0.82% increase as of October 13, 2025, amidst changing market dynamics influenced by government policies and investor sentiment [1]. Market Performance - The 30-year Treasury ETF recorded a turnover rate of 9.72% with a transaction volume of 2.952 billion yuan on the trading day [1]. - Over the past month, the average daily transaction volume for the ETF was 9.317 billion yuan [1]. Government Policy Impact - The Trump administration is maintaining its plan to impose additional tariffs starting November 1, which may affect market valuations and investor behavior [1]. - Current stock market levels and valuations are significantly higher than those observed in early April, leading some institutional investors to consider profit-taking or shifting to defensive strategies as year-end approaches [1]. Bond Market Trends - The bond market experienced notable adjustments in Q3 due to increased risk appetite, anti-competitive sentiments, and punitive redemption fee mechanisms [1]. - The overall trend for the bond market in 2023 has been characterized by adjustments in Q1, recovery in Q2, and further adjustments in Q3, with expectations for a potential phase of recovery in Q4 as risk appetite declines [1]. Short-term Outlook - Industry experts predict that the bond market will primarily experience range-bound fluctuations in the short term [1]. - Since April, the PMI has consistently remained below the threshold, indicating potential for interest rate cuts and reserve requirement reductions in Q4 to support growth policies [1]. - There are expectations for the central bank to resume bond purchases by year-end, with significant increases in allocations from rural commercial banks and insurance companies during the market adjustment period [1].