Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-10-13 03:08Core Viewpoint - Jianyin International maintains Alibaba's (09988, BABA.US) target price at HKD 200.7 for its Hong Kong stock and also maintains its target price for the US stock, both rated as "outperform" [1] Group 1: Cloud Business Performance - The visibility of Alibaba's cloud growth is considered strong, primarily benefiting from robust AI demand and its commitment to AI capital expenditure [1] - Despite increased investments, the adjusted EBITDA margin for the cloud business is expected to remain stable at 8.8% for the quarter ending in September [1] Group 2: Revenue and Profit Forecast - For the September quarter, a year-on-year revenue growth of 3.5% is anticipated, reaching RMB 254 billion, driven by a 30% acceleration in Customer Management Revenue (CMR) growth [1] - The revenue forecast exceeds the consensus among institutions by 0.6% [1] - Profit expectations have been adjusted downward due to aggressive investments in fast-moving consumer goods (QC) and AI, leading to a decline in adjusted net profit that surpasses previous estimates [1] Group 3: Long-term Growth Strategy - Increased investments may impact short-term profitability but are expected to position Alibaba well to seize structural AI opportunities [1] - The company aims to achieve synergies between its core market businesses, thereby reinforcing its long-term growth objectives [1]