多晶硅：本周价格52.36元/千克，短期或偏弱震荡

Core Insights - The polysilicon price index this week is 52.36 yuan/kg, influenced by various market factors [1] - The production of polysilicon remains stable with a weekly output of 31,000 tons, while demand is expected to decrease in Q4 due to production cuts by wafer manufacturers [1] Supply and Demand - The N-type polysilicon re-investment material is priced between 50.1 - 55 yuan/kg, and granular silicon is priced at 50 - 51 yuan/kg [1] - The supply of polysilicon is expected to increase by 3,000 to 5,000 tons month-on-month in October, with the current weekly production at 31,000 tons [1] - Wafer manufacturers are maintaining normal production during the National Day holiday, leading to a tight balance in supply and demand for September and October [1] Inventory Levels - Polysilicon inventory has increased to 240,000 tons, reflecting a 6.2% month-on-month change, while silicon wafer inventory stands at 16.78 GW, with a 3.4% increase [1] Cost Structure - The overall cost for most companies remains around 45,000 yuan/ton, with some benefiting from lower electricity prices, bringing costs below 40,000 yuan/ton [1] Market Strategy - The industry is facing significant inventory pressure due to self-discipline in production cuts and weak consumer performance, making price transmission difficult [1] - The futures market is under pressure from the cancellation of November warehouse receipts and slow policy progress, with short-term price fluctuations expected between 47,000 - 52,000 yuan/ton [1]